"We have no chance": England vs. United States, 1950 World Cup

"From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"On 29 June 1950, at the 1950 FIFA World Cup in Brazil, the United States defeated England 1–0 in a group match.

"At the time, the English considered themselves the 'Kings of Football', with a post-war record of 23 wins, 4 losses, and 3 draws. Conversely, the Americans had lost their last seven international matches by the combined score of 45–2. The odds were 3–1 the English would win the Cup, and 500–1 for the U.S.

"The American team consisted of semi-professional players, most of whom had other jobs to support their families. The team had also been hastily assembled, and had only been able to train together once, and that was the day before they left for Brazil. 'We have no chance,' recently-appointed coach Bill Jeffrey told the press.

"Newspaper headlines in most World Cup nations trumpeted the shocking upset, except in the United States and England.

"There was only one American journalist even at the World Cup: Dent McSkimming of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who could not get the newspaper to pay for the trip, and had taken time off work to cover the event. His report of the match was the only one to appear in any major American newspaper.

"In England, so unexpected was the result that it was presumed that the 1–0 scoreline was a typing error and so it was reported that England had won on a scoreline of 10–0 or 10–1.

"England's blue kit, which had made its debut in this match, was never worn again.

"The United States and England did not play another World Cup match against each other until the 2010 FIFA World Cup, which ended in a 1–1 draw."

Earthquake in Ulaanbaatar

"Journalists and the general public rush to any suggestion of earthquake prediction like hogs toward a full trough."

--Charles Richter, creator of the Richter scale for measuring the magnitude of the seismic energy of earthquakes

I received the following message from a Mongolian friend in UB:

"Hello Radigan,
Lately, there are some signs of an earthquake in UB. It will be about an 8-ball and even the president of Mongolia announced a warning to the nation on TV. Looks like it will happen for sure..."

Interestingly, the U.S. Geological Survey has done work in Mongolia studying "earthquakes that occur in the interior of continents far from plate boundaries."

There was earthquake activity in Mongolia in the Twentieth Century, but in western Mongolia, not near UB. The last large earthquake in Mongolia was over 50 years ago, in 1957. If the quakes are cyclical, which they may be, there may not be another large earthquake there for thousands of years:

"The penultimate event on the eastern part of the Bogd strike-slip fault occurred about 2400 years ago, whereas on the western segment only two large earthquakes occurred during the 12,000 years prior to 1957. The Dalan Turuu thrust appears to have slipped every 8000 years on average, the Gurvan Bulag thrust appears to produce earthquakes about every 4000 years, and the Toromhon thrust last moved several tens of thousands of years ago."

--USGS: Earthquake Hazards Program, "1998 USGS Expedition to Mongolia: Previous Work in Mongolia"

Just as there can be earthquakes in San Francisco but not in California's capital city of Sacramento, which is 144 kilometers (90 miles) away, there can be earthquakes in western Mongolia and not in Ulaanbaatar. Charted global earthquake activity shows eastern Mongolia as free of earthquakes as the Amazon and the Sahara:

The multi-organizational Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program concluded that eastern Mongolia is at relatively low risk of earthquakes, though the Program listed western Mongolia at high risk. Ulaanbaatar sits near the juncture of the risk zones:

Conclusion: It seems unlikely though not impossible that an impending earthquake will strike Ulaanbaatar.


Regarding rumors, it is good to remember that earthquakes cannot be predicted:

http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/perspective.html

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/100_chance.php

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/?topicID=53&topic=Prediction


There was a 5.1-magnitude earthquake in Dundgov aimag in January that was felt in UB. This event probably fanned earthquake rumors:

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90851/6864349.html


There was also a 4.8 earthquake near Lake Khovsgol two weeks ago:

http://www.gdacs.org/reports.asp?eventType=EQ&ID=83332&system=asgard&alertlevel=Green&glide_no=&location=MNG&country=Mongolia


It is noteworthy that there was a similar earthquake rumor in UB in the spring of 2008:

http://www.asiafinest.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=159165

http://www.lonelyplanet.com/thorntree/thread.jspa?threadID=1616084


Preparedness:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?faqID=79

http://www.fema.gov/hazard/earthquake/eq_before.shtm

how cultural that is

“One morning, while applying bug repellent, I was watched by an older Pirahã man, who asked Everett what I was doing. Eager to communicate with him in sign language, I pressed together the thumb and index finger of my right hand and weaved them through the air while making a buzzing sound with my mouth. Then I brought my fingers to my forearm and slapped the spot where my fingers had alighted. The man looked puzzled and said to Everett, 'He hit himself.' I tried again—this time making a more insistent buzzing. The man said to Everett, 'A plane landed on his arm.' When Everett explained to him what I was doing, the man studied me with a look of pitying contempt, then turned away. Everett laughed. 'You were trying to tell him something about your general state—that bugs bother you,' he said. 'They never talk that way, and they could never understand it. Bugs are a part of life.'

“'O.K.,' I said. 'But I’m surprised he didn’t know I was imitating an insect.'

“'Think of how cultural that is,' Everett said. 'The movement of your hand. The sound. Even the way we represent animals is cultural.'”


--John Colapinto, “The Interpreter: Has a remote Amazonian tribe upended our understanding of language?”, The New Yorker, 2007 April 16

piranha or caribe (Serrasalmus piraya)

"BLOODY BUTCHER OF THE RIVERS

"The most ferocious of all living creatures exists not on land, but in the fresh waters of South American rivers. It is the much-dreaded piranha or caribe, that is irresistibly attracted to blood. No animal, however big, or even a man attempting to ford a piranha-infested stream, can hope to survive if their skin is even slightly scratched. The piranha will instantly attack, and scores, even hundreds of its kind, will rush to the kill, literally slicing their victim to shreds in a matter of minutes. An authentic instance occurred in eastern Brazil, where a horse including its saddle was destroyed in five minutes. This butchery is easy for the killer because its teeth are serrated and sharp enough to cut through flesh and sinew at one snap. Even if a victim drags himself ashore, the piranha still clings, viciously biting to the last moment of its life. Anglers fishing for piranha, for the sake of its delicate flesh, have to use a specially strong hook and line. Ordinary tackle would be snapped like cotton."

--Animal World in Color, Volume 8 - Hunters: Birds, Fish, and Amphibians, edited by Maurice Burton, Childrens Press: Chicago, 1969

Brazilian Institute for Oriental Studies

Apparently, the Institute for Oriental Studies at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil is a real organization and this was their real logo. After the logo proliferated across the Net and won awards, the institute's website went offline.